Ethereum

Ethereum Derivate kucken bearish, awer Händler gleewen datt d'ETH ënnen ass

11/29/2022
Bitcoin Ethereum Neiegkeeten

Äther (ETH) rallied 5.5% in the early hours of Nov. 29, reclaiming the critical $1,200 support. However, when analyzing a broader time frame, the 24% negative performance in the past 30 days significantly impacts investors’ sentiment. Moreover, investors’ mood worsened after BlockFi huet fir Insolvenz ugemellt Am November 28.

Newsflow remained negative after the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a settlement with crypto exchange Kraken for “apparent violations of sanctions against Iran.” In a Nov. 28 announcement, the OFAC said Kraken had agreed to pay more than $362,000 to settle its potential civil liability.

Moreover, on Nov. 28, institutional crypto financial services provider Silvergate Capital denied rumors of significant exposure to BlockFi’s bankruptcy. Silvergate added that its losses are less than than $20 million in digital assets and reiterated that BlockFi was not a custodian for its crypto-collateralized loans.

Traders are afraid that Ether could drop below $800 if the bear market continues. One example comes from Crypto Twitter trader Il Capo Of Crypto:

Loosst eis kucken Ether Derivate Daten fir ze verstoen ob déi verschlechtert Maartbedéngungen d'Sentiment vun Krypto-Investisseuren beaflosst hunn.

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Pro traders are slowly exiting panic levels

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a éiwege Futurvertrag.

Déi zwee-Mount Future Annualiséierter Prime soll tëscht +4% bis +8% an gesonde Mäert handelen fir Käschten an assoziéiert Risiken ze decken. Also, wann d'Futures mat enger Remise versus reguläre Spotmäert handelen, weist et e Manktem u Vertraue vu Leverage Keefer - e bearish Indikator.

Ether 2-Mount Futures Annualiséiert Prime. Quelle: Laevitas

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. Nevertheless, it at least has shown some modest improvement on Nov. 29. Bears can highlight how far we are from a neutral-to-bullish 0% to 4% premium, but the aftermath of a 71% drop in one year holds great weight.

Still, traders should also analyze Ether d'Optioun Mäert fir d'Externalitéite spezifesch fir de Futuresinstrument auszeschléissen.

Options traders do not expect a sudden rally

Den 25% Delta-Skew ass e erzielt Zeechen wann Maarthersteller an Arbitrage-Desks iwwerlaascht fir den Upside oder Downside Schutz.

Op Bärmäert ginn d'Optiounsinvestisseuren méi héich Chancen fir e Präisdump, wouduerch de Skewindikator iwwer 10% eropgeet. Op der anerer Säit tendéieren bullish Mäert de Skew Indikator ënner -10% ze féieren, dat heescht datt d'bearish Putoptioune reduzéiert ginn.

Ether 60-Dag Optiounen 25% delta skew: Quell: Laevitas

The delta skew has gone down in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable offering downside protection.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 18%, whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing a retest of the $1,070 low is the natural course for ETH.

From an optimistic perspective, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the November 2022 sell-off was the fourth-largest fir Bitcoin (BTC). The movement has led to a seven-day realized loss of $10.2 billion.

Consequently, odds are the capitulation for Ether holders has passed and those placing bullish bets right now — defying the ETH derivatives metrics — will eventually come out ahead.