Bitcoin Derivatdaten weisen Plaz fir de BTC Präis fir dës Woch méi héich ze bewegen

Dës Woch Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to a 2023 high at $23,100 and the move followed a notable recovery in traditional markets, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which gained 2.9% on Jan. 20.

Economic data continues to boost investors’ hope that the United States Federal Reserve will reduce the pace and length of interest rate hikes. For instance, sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in December, the 11th consecutive decline after high mortgage rates in the United States severely impacted demand.

On Jan. 20, Google announced that 12,000 workers were laid off, more than 6% of its global workforce. The bad news continues to trigger buying activity on risk assets, but Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan, expects weaker earnings guidance to “put downward pressure” on the stock market.

The fear of recession increased on Jan. 20 after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that a soft recession should be tolerated if it meant bringing inflation down.

Some analysts have pegged Bitcoin’s gains to Digital Währung Group filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection — allowing the troubled Genesis Capital to seek the reorganization of debts and its business activities. But, more importantly, the move decreases the risk of a fire sale on Grayscale Investments assets, including the $13.3 billion trust fund Grayscale GBTC.

Loosst eis Derivate Metriken kucken fir besser ze verstoen wéi professionell Händler an den aktuellen Maartbedéngungen positionéiert sinn.

Bitcoin margin longs dropped after the pump to $21,000

Margin Mäert bidden Abléck wéi professionell Händler positionéiert sinn, well et Investisseuren erlaabt cryptocurrency ze léinen fir hir Positiounen ze profitéieren.

Zum Beispill kann een d'Belaaschtung erhéijen andeems se Stablecoins léinen fir Bitcoin ze kafen. Op der anerer Säit kënnen Bitcoin Prêten nëmmen d'Krypto Währung kuerzen, wéi se op säi Präis erofgoen. Géigesaz zukünfteg Kontrakter, d'Gläichgewiicht tëscht Margin Longs a Shorts ass net ëmmer passend.

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased from Jan. 12 to Jan. 16, signaling that professional traders increased their leverage longs as Bitcoin gained 18%.

However, the indicator reversed its trend as the excessive leverage, 35 times larger for buying activity on Jan. 16, retreated to a neutral-to-bullish level on Jan. 20.

Am Moment bei 15, favoriséiert d'Metrik Stablecoin Prêten mat enger grousser Margin a weist datt Shorts net zouversiichtlech sinn iwwer d'Bau vun bearish leveraged Positiounen.

Still, such data does not explain whether pro traders became less bullish or decided to reduce their leverage by depositing additional margin. Hence, one should analyze options markets to understand if the sentiment has changed.

Options traders are neutral despite the recent rally

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Den Indikator vergläicht ähnlech Call (Kaafen) a Put (verkafen) Optiounen a wäert positiv ginn wann Angscht verbreet ass, well d'Schutzoptiounspremie méi héich ass wéi Risiko Call Optiounen.

Kuerz gesot, d'Skew Metrik wäert iwwer 10% réckelen wann Händler e Bitcoin Präis Crash fäerten. Op der anerer Säit reflektéiert generaliséiert Opreegung eng negativ 10% Schief.

As displayed above, the 25% delta skew reached its lowest level in more than 12 months on Jan. 15. Option traders were finally paying a premium for bullish strategies instead of the opposite.

Verbonnen: Genesis Insolvenz Fall geplangt fir éischt Hearing

Currently, at minus 2%, the delta skew signals that investors are pricing similar odds for bull and bear cases, which is somewhat less optimistic than expected considering the recent rally toward $22,000.

Derivatives data puts the bullish case in check as buyers using stablecoin margin significantly reduced their leverage and option markets are pricing similar risks for either side. On the other hand, bears have not found a level where they would be comfortable opening short positions by borrowing Bitcoin on margin markets.

Traditional markets continue to play a crucial role in setting the trend, but Bitcoin bulls have no reason to fear as long as derivatives metrics remain healthy.